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More Sunshine Ahead

ABC 11 Raleigh NC logo ABC 11 Raleigh NC 2 hrs ago WTVD

In the wake of Ian, a non-tropical low pressure system will continue to lurk off the coast for the next couple of days with a 500 mb low parked more or less overhead; the main focus is just to our north over Virginia. The offshore storm combined with a 1030 mb high over western Quebec is producing gusty northerly winds across the area, and filtering in plenty of chilly air. The normal high/low for today is 77/56 and we'll be nowhere near that; in fact it will take until Thursday to achieve that level of warmth.

Any breaks that we do get in the clouds late today will fill in again tonight as the upper low deepens and expands. The best chance for a shower or two would be early tonight, but there is at least some chance of a shower even into early tomorrow as that upper low remains in place. There won't be much warming either as the northerly wind holds on. Once again we could try to see some breaks in the clouds in the afternoon; if they are early enough then we should get slightly higher than today's readings.

We finally begin to see some improvement on Wednesday as the low moves away from the coast and weakening ridging aloft moves into the region. Model guidance is backing off on the level of warmth we might achieve; we nudged temperatures down into the low 70s for now but it may still be in the upper 60s as 850 mb temperatures are slower to warm.

We finally get back to around average for early October on Thursday as a weakening area of high pressure slides across the area ahead of the next cold front. That front looks to come through the area later Friday, and the 00z model runs are unimpressed with the idea of any kind of shower as it comes through. Instead, the models look pretty dry throughout the atmospheric column, so this could turn out to be a simple wind shift for us - as well as a big drop in the temperature again. Temperatures ahead of the front may get boosted up to around 80 before the much cooler air mass behind it kicks in and we top out only in the upper 60s for the weekend.

Have a great evening!

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