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Storm Chances Drop for Tropical Wave in Atlantic, Not Expected to Impact US: NHC

NBC Miami logo NBC Miami 8/10/2022 NBC 6
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The next named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season could form within days, but forecasters say both South Florida and the United States are not expected to be impacted.

The National Hurricane Center reported Wednesday that a disorganized group of showers and thunderstorms south of the Cabo Verde islands could gradually develop as it moves to the west and later the northwest.

NHC forecasters give the area a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 30% chance in the next five days.

The potential system is expected to turn to the northeast and away from the United States in the coming days and not impact the mainland U.S.

If it does become a named system, it would be named Danielle and be the fourth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic season. There have been zero hurricanes in the season to date.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's updated prediction totals call for 14-20 named storms, one below their prediction released in May.

The total number of hurricanes expected remains unchanged at six to ten, but the number of major hurricanes is now expected to be three to five, instead of the earlier prediction of three to six, NOAA said. NOAA's averages for the Atlantic hurricane season is 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. The average for major hurricanes is three.

Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project's updated forecast calls for 18 named storms, one below their prediction released in April.

The total number of hurricanes expected has gone from nine to eight, and major hurricanes expected remains unchanged at four, Colorado State said.

The past couple hurricane seasons have seen large numbers of named storms, and if 2022 is above-normal, it would be the seventh consecutive year it's been above-normal.

The 2021 season was the third-most active season on record, with 21 named storms and seven hurricanes.

The 2020 season was record-breaking, with 30 named storms and 13 hurricanes, including six major hurricanes. It was only the second time the Greek alphabet was utilized to complete a season.

After that season, the Greek alphabet was discontinued, and a list of supplemental names is now used.

The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and runs through November 30.

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