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Tropical depression chances remain low as disturbance makes it way across Atlantic

Sun Sentinel logoSun Sentinel 8/10/2022 Angie DiMichele, Chris Perkins, South Florida Sun-Sentinel

Chances remain low that a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean will develop into a tropical depression, forecasters say.

As of 8 a.m. Wednesday the disturbance has a 30% chance of developing in the next five days and a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The 30% chance of development is considered low by the NHC. As recently as Monday, forecasters gave the system a 40% chance, or medium, of developing into a tropical depression.

Little has changed with the disturbance in the past day. The system is several hundred miles off the African coast and is still producing disorganized rain showers and thunderstorms.

Forecasters said some gradual development is still possible as the disturbance churns west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the next few days.

However, the outlook for further development during the weekend remains doubtful because the disturbance runs into unfavorable conditions.

The next named storm to form will be Danielle.

It appears the Atlantic could be quiet for a week or so after this tropical wave, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.

“Outside of this particular tropical wave, not much else stands out as far as candidates for development through Aug. 20,” he said.

The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane Sept. 24 and maintained that status until Oct 5 as it cut a path between the United States and Bermuda.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week updated predictions for activity this hurricane season.

Experts are now predicting 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes, with three to five of them a Category 3 or higher.

The statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10.

There have been three named storms in the Atlantic so far this year: Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm, dumped as much as 12 inches of rain on parts of South Florida.

The six-month-long hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.

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