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New system to emerge west of Florida, hurricane center says

Orlando Sentinel logoOrlando Sentinel 8/13/2022 Joe Mario Pedersen, Orlando Sentinel

The National Hurricane Center continues to keep its eye on a system in the Gulf of Mexico with a very small chance to develop into tropical depression.

In its 8 a.m. Saturday tropical update, the NHC said the weak low pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.

“Only slight development of this system is possible while it moves west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph and approaches the Texas coast later today and tonight, then moves inland over southern Texas on Sunday,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown.

Whether or not the system grows, local rain is possible along the Texas coast through the weekend.

The NHC gives the system only a 10% chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

Hurricane season is approaching the portion of the year known as the peak of season, which is known for the most prolific production of storms between mid-August and mid-October, with Sept. 10 recorded as the statistically most productive day of storms in the tropics.

So far, the 2022 season has seen three named storms: Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Based on historical averages, the fourth named storm of the year typically appears by Aug. 15. If a system were to emerge, it would receive the name Danielle.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reaffirmed its preseason prediction of an above-average hurricane season with a range of 14 to 21 named storms. The NOAA expects most of those storms to emerge at the peak of the season.

Hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.

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